According to Wood Mackenzie's latest report on the competitive landscape of commercial solar energy in the United States, the third-party ownership (TPO) market share of non residential projects in the United States is expected to increase from 69% in 2023 to 72% in 2024.

The report predicts that the TPO sector will continue to lead commercial and community solar financing, with market share reaching 74% by 2026 and dropping to 62% by 2029. According to Wood Mackenzie, Nexamp has the largest TPO market share (7%) in 2024, by Summit Ridge Energy (6.5%) and Standard Solar (5.3%).

Amanda Colombo, research assistant at Wood Mackenzie, said: "The maturity of the tax credit transferable market is driving the growth of third-party ownership. Transferable tax credits provide TPO projects with simpler, more economical, and more flexible monetization options. Small and medium-sized project developers have stated that transferability simplifies third-party financing. ”

The report also found that the overall commercial solar market in the United States reached an annual high in 2024, with a national increase in installed capacity of 2.1 gigawatts. Major states such as California, Maine, and Illinois drove an 8% year-on-year growth.

Looking ahead, Wood Mackenzie predicts that the United States will add over 11 gigawatts of direct current commercial solar installed capacity in the next five years. The expected increase in electricity prices, growth in emerging markets, and continued impetus from the Inflation Reduction Act will be key drivers of installed capacity growth.

Colombo said, "Driven by favorable factors such as low development costs, untapped solar potential, and sufficient available land, the installation volume of emerging solar state markets across the United States is surging. It is worth noting that commercial solar deployment in underdeveloped markets in the Midwest and Southeast regions is significantly increasing